NATO’s plan to Trump-proof Ukraine aid shows just how worried US allies are about the future of American leadership

• NATO’s secretary general is proposing a plan for the alliance to control future aid packages.
• The plan would have the US step aside from leading the group that coordinates weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
• A potential second Trump term raises concerns about the security of assistance to Ukraine. 

NATO’s secretary general has a plan to give the alliance control of the group supplying Ukraine with weapons — a job currently held by the US.

The move comes amid growing concerns that former President Donald Trumps’s reelection could spell trouble for Ukraine’s future fighting, as well as continued inaction in Congress thanks to a stark political divide on giving Ukraine more money.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg raise the idea at a NATO meeting this week, suggesting that the alliance consider taking on leadership of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, also called the Ramstein group, that organizes the delivery of weapons to Ukraine.

"We must ensure reliable and predictable security assistance to Ukraine for the long haul, so that we rely less on voluntary contributions and more on NATO commitments. Less on short-term offers and more on multi-year pledges," Stoltenberg said.

That move would shift control of the group away from the US, which created and has led it since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. The plan was pitched by Stoltenberg in order to "shield the mechanism" of getting Ukraine aid "against the winds of political change," officials told The Financial Times, an apparent reference to the deepening political divide in Washington, DC.

The plan also includes coordinating $100 billion from NATO allies over the next five years to ensure Ukraine gets the aid it needs to keep fighting. News of the proposal was first reported by POLITICO earlier this week.

At a press briefing on Wednesday, Stoltenberg refused to go into further details about how discussions on the proposal had gone but said NATO was "now in the process of developing a more robust and enduring, institutionalized framework for support to Ukraine." He added that Ukraine had been informed about this process.

It remains unclear right now whether this plan will ultimately gain traction, especially before the NATO summit in Washington this July, but the emergence of this plan seems to highlight growing concern about US leadership.

The Ukraine Defense Contract Group has been the critical element getting military aid to Ukraine. The once-a-month meeting of over 50 nations, including all NATO members, focuses specifically on the procurement of ammunition, weapons systems, and other technologies and gear for Ukraine.

It was started by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in April 2022 and has since been helmed by US leadership.

The group’s meetings have consisted of some of the most high-profile debates of the war, from whether Germany and the US would send main battle tanks to Ukraine to where NATO allies landed on providing fighter jets, like the F-16.

Recent sessions have seen little progress. The US, which has sent $44.2 billion in military aid since the full-scale invasion, has far-and-away been Ukraine’s biggest individual supporter. But the tap’s dried up in recent months, as political roadblocks in Congress have led to inaction on a supplemental funding bill including $60 billion for Ukraine.

That vital aid has been tied up since last October. While the Senate passed a foreign aid bill including that money as well as funds for Israel in February, House Speaker Mike Johnson hasn’t put it up for a vote in the House yet; it remains unclear if the bill would have enough votes to pass, given staunch opposition from some Republican lawmakers.

With the US unable to get Ukraine more aid for the time being, European allies have stepped up to the plate, particularly Germany and France, as well as the Czech Republic.

Ahead of Wednesday’s NATO meeting, Stoltenberg made clear that plans to tighten NATO control of support for Ukraine were inspired by what’s happening in Congress, saying "the fact that there has been no agreement in the US Congress on a supplemental or continued this support has consequences."

"That’s one of the reasons why the Ukrainian have to ration the number of artillery shells, why they have problems standing up against the Russian force with overwhelming military power because they’re able to outgun them with more ammunition and more artillery," he said.

The potential shift in NATO politics and plans also comes on the cusp of a consequential US presidential election in November, when voters will likely decide between incumbent President Joe Biden and presumed Republican nominee former President Donald Trump.

The latter has not been shy about his distaste for NATO over the years, often spewing inflammatory rhetoric about the alliance taking advantage of US funding and some countries not "paying their fair share." During his first term, he even considered pulling the US out of the alliance.

He’s also expressed an inclination to cease support for Ukraine and talked about negotiating a peace deal with Russia that would force Ukraine to cede much of the territory it’s lost in the war. Ukrainian officials and leaders have rejected such a move, doubling-down on their goal of reclaiming all occupied land.

While campaigning this year, Trump’s continued much of that same rhetoric. In February, the former president infuriated many NATO members when he told supporters he would let Russia "do whatever the hell they want" to NATO countries who aren’t spending enough on the alliance’s defenses.

And just last month, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a long-time Trump ally and opponent of NATO aid to Ukraine, said that Trump wouldn’t "give a penny in the Ukraine-Russia war. That is why the war will end." Orbán made this comment after visiting Trump at Mar-a-Lago for a social engagement.

Over the past few years, especially amid Russia’s invasion, many NATO members have upped their contributions. Early projections show 18 nations spending the suggested 2% of their GDP on defense, seven more than in 2023. In 2014, only three NATO allies met this threshold.

If Trump is reelected, there are anxieties that the US could change position on supporting Ukraine, leaving the effort to European allies. Stoltenberg’s proposal would ensure Ukraine has what it needs throughout a second Trump term and would protect funding and military aid from his administration.

But the move would dilute the US’ leadership role in the alliance’s support for Ukraine. It would also suggest a growing wariness of and distrust in America’s shifting political stances.

On Wednesday, the White House pushed back on such a plan, reiterating the importance of the US leading the Ramstein Group. "It is bigger than NATO, it’s 50 some-odd nations all around the world, including in the Indo-Pacific — and what brought them together was American leadership," Kirby told reporters.

He added that what is "keeping them together is American leadership."

But if the group is, as Kirby described it, "an example of how President Biden has really revitalized our leadership on the world stage to bring countries together to do this," then inaction in Congress shows the limits of that.

During a Hudston Institute event in Washington last week, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said the US needed to step up its efforts to aid Ukraine. Many countries, Tsahkna said, including China, are watching the war, "so I think that [the] US must wake up as well, showing the leadership more because Europe is doing more right now."

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Publicado: April 5, 2024 at 05:48AM